World Energy Outlook 2011, did I say 4 degrees warmer, make that 7.

The International Energy Agency is the organisation that gets all the governments listening,  it just reports energy facts and relates them in annual reports about projected
energy growth. Even Peak Oil bodies realise that, although I’m sure they try to “adjust” their take on whatever optimistic outlook they have. Like electric cars and how fantastic that will be.

Fatih Birol, the chief economist of the I.E.A. seems a believable man, even after denying Peak Oil for years, last year he changed his mind and said it happened in 2006, but at least he fessed up. The release of the new report however, seems to revisit that, firmly saying that the expected oil production in 2035 will rise from 87 million barrels per day (now) to 99 mbpd, with China responsible for half that growth. The global figure for cars on the road rises from 800 million to 1,700 million, and I didn’t hear the word electric mentioned once.

This short clip is an overview.



Maria van der Hoeven, new executive director couldn’t bring a more “sensitive” front to this report sadly, except for stressing that we need to accelerate renewable energy sources, and Fatih complied somewhat, saying renewables will provide 45% of energy supplies by 2035. A figure of 38 trillion dollars would be needed for energy investment by 2035 too, with 100 billion needed in the Middle East/North African countries + Brazil every year just to serve the oil up.

“The door is closing,” Fatih Birol said. “I am very worried – if we don’t change direction now on how we use energy, we will end up beyond what scientists tell us is the minimum [for safety]. The door will be closed forever.”

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