The Road to Paris, What the UNFCCC ISN’T telling us.

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This excerpt from “The Newsroom” just about says what needs to be said, but its T.V. right? No, its bang on the money, as Dr Michael Mann stated in this interview:

“If we had acted when we already knew that there was a potential problem [back in 1988],” says Mann. “If we had acted then, then the emissions curve would be a bunny slope…a pretty gradual, smooth transition. It wouldn’t be very hard to do, it wouldn’t be very expensive. Instead, what several decades of delay have bought us is that we now face the black double diamond slope. That’s what we’re confronting now.”

“With modern technology humans have become so powerful that we now rival the great forces of nature, so much so that we have diverted the planet from its natural course, taking it out of the Holocene’s 10,000 years of climatic stability and clemency into a new, unstable and dangerous geological epoch, the Anthropocene.

The International Commission on Stratigraphy is now going through a formal process of deciding whether it should add the Anthropocene to the Geological Time Scale, the scale on which the entire 4.5 billion year history of the Earth is divided.”

The last Road to Paris post described the technological basis for the future UNFCCC emissions reductions program. Over the last 2 years there has been a succession of high level reports of how the “Green Economy” would change the world, how the re-wiring of the world would be ‘doable’ at $90 TRILLION, how this would only amount to a small % of GDP. Green jobs, sustainable future and “yes we can” stay under 2 degrees.

The 7 year delay between the IPCC reports ensures that information published can be 4 or 5 years old, and more relevant information can miss the cycle of IPCC inclusion.

What is important to realise about the IPCC process is that it is conservative. Predictions made in past reports have been attributed 100’s years in the future in the reports, when they are happening before our eyes now. Witness the melting of Arctic Sea Ice, described by eminent scientists as being in a “death spiral” and the IPCC’s timescale of melt pushed out to the 2090’s-2100

These graphs of ice melt show the new “normal” as opposed to the IPCC RCP 4.5. (Used as the basis for climate “survival” trajectory. (click to see larger graph).


This overlay of 2012 measured ice melt on IPCC projections of Arctic Ice published in 2013. The delay in collating information, checking and publishing often means the IPCC data is outdated, and projections “optimistic”.


This years ice melt may not be less than the record low of 2012, but the melt season has another month to run in the hottest half-year start ever, for the 2nd year in a row. It is interesting to note that this years “melt” season began with a record LOW ice mass.


Another major issue we are misled on is “THERMAL INERTIA”, the time taken for emissions to convert to heat increase. Estimates current in IPCC literature infer many decades difference between “cause and effect”. Previous research seemed to indicate a 40+ “time lag” before temperatures were impacted. This perhaps, as with the IPCC reports, tended to push things out further into the future, leaving responsibility for future generations. Allowing technological development to play catch-up.

Recent research how has brought the “effects” much closer.                

This has an amazing “oh f^+k” immediate impact on me. It appears that the level of warming NOW, (0.8C), that is causing the extreme weather events globally,  IS CAUSED BY THE CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS UP TO 2005 !!!!!!

2005 emissionsAs can be seen, emissions generated in 2005 was 27 billion tonnes, China was a few years into its economic growth spurt which only slowed down when the Financial crisis hit in 2008. This had next to NO impact on emissions rise as the BRICS nations took up the slack of OECD emissions and maintained emissions generation.

Fast forward 10 years and we have hit 40 billion tonnes, A 50% INCREASE. The “carbon budget” is not impacted but the effects of the “locked in” temperature increase of TODAYS CARBON EMISSIONS WILL NOT BE FELT FOR 10 YEARS.

Many scientists are predicting that we have ALREADY 1.2C warming.

2014 saw no increase to this emissions figure, and was hailed by IEA chief Fatih Birol as evidence that the world was finally de-coupling economic growth from emissions generation. everything IS FINE AND WE ARE ON COURSE.

Even the best climate sceptic would avoid using 1 years data to predict the future, however, Fatih’s Crystal Ball detailing the continued use and expansion of fossil fuels past 2050, OR the creation of a liquid carbon industry sequestering hundreds of BILLIONS of tonnes (TWICE AS BIG AS THE PETROLEUM INDUSTRY), can be achieved without pushing global temperatures past 2 degree before he has a chance to become Emperor. But, Christiana Figures is also “spellbound” after having gazed into the Crystal Ball, and this is the road we are taking to Paris.

” . . . . the 450 ppm level will soon be crossed, the question remains, how will we respond . . . . . ”    The Newsroom.

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