Do the math – postscript.

Posted on 25/07/2012 by ixpieth

12 hours after posting “Do the math, goodbye Artic . . .” NASA released satellite data indicating that for the first time since records have been taken, the summer ice melt covered the whole of Greenland including the highest point 2 miles above sea level. (It should be clear that this refers to “ice melting” over 97% of Greenland, NOT that the “ice disappeared” over 97%. The land ice at points is 3,000 metres thick, that is why a sea level rise of 7.5 metres SHOULD the ice disappear, is forecast).

Extent of surface melt over Greenland’s ice sheet on July 8 (left) and July 12 (right). Measurements from three satellites showed that on July 8, about 40 percent of the ice sheet had undergone thawing at or near the surface. In just a few days, the melting had dramatically accelerated and an estimated 97 percent of the ice sheet surface had thawed by July 12. In the image, the areas classified as “probable melt” (light pink) correspond to those sites where at least one satellite detected surface melting. The areas classified as “melt” (dark pink) correspond to sites where two or three satellites detected surface melting.

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“On average in the summer, about half of the surface of Greenland’s ice sheet
naturally melts. At high elevations, most of that melt water quickly refreezes
in place. Near the coast, some of the melt water is retained by the ice sheet
and the rest is lost to the ocean. But this year the extent of ice melting at or
near the surface jumped dramatically.

This extreme melt event coincided with an unusually strong ridge of warm air, or a heat dome, over Greenland. The ridge was one of a series that has dominated Greenland’s weather since the end of May. “Each successive ridge has been stronger than the previous one,” said Mote. This latest heat dome started to move over Greenland on July 8, and then parked itself over the ice sheet about three days later. By July 16, it had begun to dissipate.”

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/greenland-melt.html

Do the maths, goodbye Artic, goodbye Coral Reefs.

Posted on 24/07/2012 by ixpieth

Several scientists and environmentalists have recently published pictures of the future which, under “normal” circumstances would provoke some kind of dramatic response.

“Greenland ice sheet reflectivity at record low, particularly at high elevations”

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Ice sheet reflectivity is crucial in that the opposite means greater heat absorbtion, which, in an area covered in ice and snow, becomes an irreversable loop. The system collapse has been caused by a mere 0.8 degree C global increase in temperatures, current trajectory is for a 4 – 6C average warming by 2100. Artic air temperatures have risen 4C since 1980 but this a minor factor. The chief culprit in “calving” events such as the glaciers shed from the Peterman Glacier in NW Greenland in 2010 and again this week in 2012 is WATER TEMPERATURE.

Peterman glacier ‘calving’ in 2010.

and below last week.

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These events are a prime indicator of irrevrsible ice loss as NASA’s website indicates, caused by the 22,000,000,000 tonnes of CO2 human beings ‘force’ into the atmoshere. “Even if the ice declined a large amount in one year, it should bounce back,” says Walt Meier of the US National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado, research shows a permanent alteration. According to data from the past five years, the Arctic sea ice has not recovered from the 2007 extreme low. “The system has passed a tipping point,” he says.

Perhaps the most staggering image from the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Centre (below) is this years ‘ice cover total’ and it’s departure (mostly on the Atlantic side) from the 1979 – 2000 average ice cover.

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http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2012/05/daily-image/ http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/petermann-calve.html

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ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE WORLD, the same WATER TEMPERATURE INCREASE has even more dramatic effects ;

“A World Without Coral Reefs” was a New York Times op-ed last week by Roger Bradbury, expressing the very reasonable fear that Pacific Coral reef systems would collapse within a generation. Given the thin precarious temperature range under which pacific reefs survive, other oceanographers such as Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, have been long time outspoken advocates of a reduction of carbon emissions which is the root cause of ocean acidification. Other issues such as overfishing and shoreline pollution from land based uses and waste play destructive roles

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Bill McKibben published a stunning article inviting readers to analyse 3 simple numbers which combine to provide “Global warming’s terrifying New Math”

2 degrees celsius.

The only significant agreement from the Copenhagen Climate Conference was to limit temperature increases to 2 degree or less. This provides a “carbon budget” to apply between 2009 and 2050.

The Second Number: 565 Gigatons

The “carbon budget” means humans can pour roughly 565 more gigatons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The 565-gigaton figure was derived from one of the most sophisticated computer-simulation models that have been built by climate scientists around the world over the past few decades. And the number is being further confirmed by the latest climate-simulation models currently being finalized in advance of the next report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. CO₂ emissions last year (2011) over 32 gigatones, at that rate, we’ll blow through our 565-gigaton allowance in 16 years,

The Third Number: 2,795 Gigatons

This number is the scariest of all, highlighted last summer by the Carbon Tracker Initiative. The number describes the amount of carbon already contained in the proven coal and oil and gas reserves of the fossil-fuel companies, and the countries (think Venezuela or Kuwait) that act like fossil-fuel companies. In short, it’s the fossil fuel we’re currently planning to burn. And the key point is that this new number – 2,795 – is higher than 565. Five times higher

We have five times as much oil and coal and gas on the books as climate scientists think is safe to burn, this coal and gas and oil is still technically in the soil. But it’s already economically aboveground – it’s figured into share prices, companies are borrowing money against it, nations are basing their budgets on the presumed returns from their patrimony. It explains why the big fossil-fuel companies have fought so hard to prevent the regulation of carbon dioxide – those reserves are their primary asset, the holding that gives their companies their value.

CO2 emissions by fossil fuels [1 ppm CO2 ~ 2.12 GtC, where ppm is parts per million of CO2 in air and GtC isgigatons of carbon] via Hansen. Significantly exceeding 450 ppm risks several severe and irreversible warming impacts. [Estimated reserves and potentially recoverable resources are from U.S. EIA (2011) and German Advisory Council on Global Change (2011). We are headed toward 800 to 1,000+ ppm, which represents the near-certain destruction of modern civilization as we know it — as the recent scientific literature makes chillingly clear]

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/07/23/565751/mckibben-must-read-global-warming039s-terrifying-new-math/

GETTING CLIMATE CHANGE BACK ON THE AGENDA FOR THE 21st CENTURY.

Posted on 19/07/2012 by ixpieth

THE WORLD GROANS yet again at the unimaginable contortions governments will go to SALVAGE THE WRECK of the financial industry. The Environment, Climate Change, targets for decreasing emissions, the imminent death of global coral reef systems, biodiversity loss and ocean acidification, just get kicked down the road as easily as the solutions to the fundamental flaws in society.

But this is different, this is beyond “AMBIVALENCE”, it is “willing blindness”. A determined strategy to re-start the engines of growth which hammers the final nail in the coffin. There is a point to this ignorance, to demonstrate the “sense of entitlement” of human beings, their arrogance and hubris. To wilfully ignore blindingly obvious evidence of imminent environmental collapse, akin to sanctioning mass murder.

The BBC documentary “Global Wierding” spotlighted the U.K.’s experience with savage weather extremes and this was expanded by YALE Forum on Climate Change and through U.S. scientists highlighting the “new normal” in America. Jeff Masters and Jennifer Francis give a “spellbinding” demonstration of the “Jetstream” air currents and their impact (thro’ Artic temperature increases) are a driver of “extreme weather”.

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OCEAN ACIDIFICATION.

THE NEW YORK TIMES published an Op Ed piece entitled ;

A World Without Coral Reefs By ROGER BRADBURY, speculating on the imminent destruction of The Great Barrier Reef and the Pacific Reef System

“Zombie ecosystems” caused by overfishing, ocean acidification and pollution are pushing coral reefs into oblivion. Overfishing, ocean acidification and pollution have two features in common. First, they are accelerating. They are growing broadly in line with global economic growth, so they can double in size every couple of decades. Second, they have extreme inertia — there is no real prospect of changing their trajectories in less than 20 to 50 years. In short, these forces are unstoppable and irreversible. And it is these two features — acceleration and inertia — that have blindsided us.

Jellyfish swarms wash up on Costa del Sol in the U.K. Telegraph highlights the natural processes now in chain of ocean acidification preventing the formation of ‘shelled’ predators and destruction of plant matter (coral reefs) that rely on a very narrow temperature range for survival.

OVERFISHING and biodiversity loss in the Mediterranean has lead to a vast reduction in natural predater abundance around SPAIN (swordfish, marlin, and turtle) – so with warmer water temperatures, “the once in 10 year” infestation of the Med coast line, has, since 2002, been ANNUAL.

Over the past weekend, more than 1,000 people sought first aid treatment along the Malaga coast.

NO2 and CO2 POLLUTION OUT OF CONTROL.

Major Cities air quality such as Madrid (pictured), and Barcelona have consistently exceeded European Union levels even tho’ enjoying wonderful public transport systems – many cities still struggle to find effective answers to constant advertising of ‘snappy new cars’ and S.U.V.’s. Shipping remains a completely uncontrolled source of toxic emissions from the massive ramp up of global trade spewing sulphur and nitrous oxides over coastal communities.

It is clear that excess nitrogen is not good for our environment; it is also not good for our health. Reactive nitrogen is an important driver of air pollution worldwide and as sulphur emissions have lessened, nitrogen is now the principal acidifying component in acid rain. Nitrogen may join with oxygen to form nitrogen oxide (NO), a precursor of smog, and also a respiratory irritant. Nitrogen oxides, along with volatile organic compounds, contribute to the formation of ground level ozone, nitrous oxide (N20) is also one of the three most important greenhouse gases, being almost 300 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.

The nitrogen cycle and health by Elizabeth Cullen

In June 2009 Deutsche Bank launched the Carbon Counter opposite New York’s Grand Central Station. The amount of carbon in the atmosphere was 3.64 TRILLION METRIC TONNES. ON TODAY’S INSPECTION THE NUMBER WAS –

3,707,815,145,642 METRIC TONNES. IN 3 YEARS ALMOST 66 BILLION METRIC TONNES OF CARBON HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE ATMOSPHERE.

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STARTING AGAIN, one thing that works, PERMACULTURE.

Posted on 19/07/2012 by ixpieth

GEOFF LAWTON gave this TedTalk earlier this month explaining the progress and development of Permaculture.

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There is no doubt that environmentalists can be seen to grasp at straws as each new scientific report points to collapse but Geoff Lawton points to very positive secure systems creation.

David Holmgren was the inspiration and co-founder of Permaculture with Bill Mollison. The Australian pair wrote the foundation and launched what would become a blindingly succesful programme. Permaculture is a Global phenomenon, highlighting it’s effectiveness through adoption in Cuba when trade and oil embargos forced a drastic rethink of agricultural practices. Havana now supplies 90% of it’s fruit & vegetable needs from over 200 community gardens in the capitol.

The global movement of Transition Towns has Permaculture at its heart, and it is aligning with traditional patrimony of community gardens the world over to provide an environmental alliance that is only now emerging as food security becomes a major problem.

David Holmgren gave this talk recently.

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