“After that, the modelling is forecasting what can be termed ‘the 2017 drop-off’. The outlook under a base case scenario is for a long decline in oil production to begin in 2017, which will stretch to the end of the century and beyond.
Thus beyond 2017 we must begin to cope with the longer-term task of replacing oil as a source of energy.”
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Those readers of the “Oil Drum” or “Energy Bulletin may be up with this report from 2009 commissioned by the Federal Australian Govt, and how it has remained locked away from public discussion since then, displaying the complete absence of any seriousness in preparation for the future.
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Whilst officials have been aware of the spin over the future of energy supplies, only 1 municipal Council in Melbourne (Maribyrnong) has taken ANY measures to assess what impact PEAK OIL will have. It has been mentioned in Jago Dobson’s groundbreaking research from Griffith University looking at the double impacts to Australia’s car driving society. Rising oil prices and economic hardship are projected to have devastating effects on Australia’s “middle class”. Mortgage payments on expensive housing now leave very little discretionary cash.
The Report clearly agrees with the I.E.A. projection that the “PEAK” of “easy extraction”, conventional oil, that society has based it’s growth upon, happened in 2006. From that point, current oil supplies have been bouyed by Tar Sands oil and deepwater drilling. These VERY DANGEROUS and expensive extraction methods are temporary NEW sources that are expected to maintain EXISTING demand ONLY UNTIL 2016.
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From then on global supply deteriorates until the end of the century AND NEVER REGAINS THE SUPPLY LEVEL WE HAVE NOW. 2015 – BIG YEAR …………….. PEAK EMISSIONS AND PEAK OIL. Funny how similar the graphs look !!!
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………………… This is a graph from Prof Kevin Anderson of the Tyndal Institute who provided the Audio presentation at “2015 – PEAK EMISSIONS, or the planet gets it” detailing the emissions reduction needed to PEAK in 2015.
Australian Energy Minister Martin Ferguson is currently Chair of the IEA Ministerial Committee ;
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“New technology, such as floating LNG, will unlock huge resources and boost this major industry. We’re on track to be the second largest exporter of LNG in the next few years.” Ferguson states.
His last BIG IDEA was to bring OPRAH WINFREY AND THE WHOLE SHOW out to Australia to record a couple of programmes. At the cost of millions of tax payer $$’s FERGUSON RECKONS “You can’t buy that sort of publicity”.
It’s really great to know such an “international player” is across so many issues like what’s good for Australia. He maintains his position as an ABSOLUTE DUD with his “planet saving” COAL AND GAS EXPORT DEALS AND REFUSAL TO RECOGNISE THE CLIMATE REALITY.
NO SURPRISE that his new “MATE” FATIH BIRROL and the I.E.A. is projecting a 40% increase in the “gas future”, AND BIG MARTI’s gunner do the Ozzies proud. His “great white hope” of a GAS/GEOSEQUESTRATION answer to a LOW CARBON future is a MYTH.
It is his policy decision making that is RUINING THE GREAT BARRIER REEF with gas and coal export terminals in WORLD HERITAGE LISTED AREAS, this ensures global emissions reduction targets CANNOT BE MET.
With people such as FERGUSON in the “power faction” within the Labour Party THERE CAN BE NO EFFECTIVE CONTRIBUTION TO PREVENTING CLIMATE CHANGE. He remains the man who refused to release the report on the Timor Sea Oil Spill and fire and stuck up for vested FOSSIL FUEL interests..
The Dept of Transport (which commissioned the report), under Anthony Albanese, has still not published it on the Dept’s website, and since the report was finished, HE AND THE TRANSPORT DEPT haVE been busy approving freeway projects all over Australia – DID THEY THINK WE WOULDN’T NOTICE WHEN THE PRICE OF PETROL GOT TO $3 per litre ?
No place like home. 
Thanks for this report and update. To me it’s important that the world should know what is coming. When the problem hits us in the face then the “multple interconnected feedback loops” that make up our society will unravel. We will have “cascading failures” and in the space of one year our whole civilization will change. Thanks. Keep Writing. Keep Blogging.
What you say is too true, I have big problems with the notion of transparency &, related to climate change/peak oil, the notion that its best not to “frighten” people.
What people need is the truth and they will find ways to adapt.